[1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/2283724
[2] https://www.fda.gov/downloads/MedicalDevices/DeviceRegulatio...
[1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/2283724
[2] https://www.fda.gov/downloads/MedicalDevices/DeviceRegulatio...
Relatedly, there's a Bayesian interpretation to overweighting successful past draws. A model where you return one extra ball of the same color to the urn gets you a Dirichlet-multinomial distribution, which is a die-roll distribution where the weights to each face are not known for sure, but are given a probability distribution and revised with observed evidence. In other words: here's an n-sided die, I don't know its weightings, but as I observe outcomes I'll update my beliefs that the sides that come up are more favorably weighted. The number of balls in the urn you start with correspond to your priors; only 1 ball of each color means a very weak belief that it's a fair die, 1000 balls of each color means a strong belief, unequal numbers mean that you start off believing it's weighted.