Given those probabilities it seem like a good investment. Or for the less risky version, dollar cost averaging.
You use something like share builder: Every month invest $100.
1month - $100 price of stock 25.0 Stock own:- 4
2month - $200 price of stock 20.0 Stock own:- 9
3month - $300 price of stock 20.0 Stock own:- 14
4month - $400 price of stock 10.0 Stock own:- 24
5month - $500 price of stock 10.0 Stock own:- 34
6month - $600 price of stock 5.0 Stock own:- 54
7month - $700 price of stock 5.0 stock own:- 74
8month - $800 price of stock 5.0 stock own:- 94
9month - $900 price of stock 10.0 stock own:- 104
10month -$1000 price of stock 20.0 stock own:- 109
Overall value of stock own is 109*20 = 2180. Profit:= $2180-$1000 = $1180
This is an exaggerated example and I only have knowledge of dollar cost average in theory, so anybody have real world experience, jump into the conversation.