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Comment by rada | Hacker News Reader

The article sites the average American's risk of developing Parkinson's at 1%. I really question that. My husband's father died of Parkinson's several years ago, my own father is currently living with Parkinson's, my best friend's father has Parkinson, and so on. Am I the only one surrounded by Parkinson's disease, or is it a growing epidemic? I wonder if that 1% number is an old statistic. I can't find any sources, links?

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"Random is blotchy". At 1 out of 100, you don't have to know that many people who are able to get Parkinson's to have a non-trivial chance of seeing "more than expected" the number of cases. I don't know anybody with Parkinson's, and I "should", I know well more than 100 people who could have it, and if they did, I would know. And of all the people reading these comments and able to post, the odds that at least one would be in a "comment-worthy" blotch is basically 100%.

Here's a summary article of a large epidemiological study:

http://news.wustl.edu/news/Pages/20150.aspx

Doing the math (450,000 cases out of 36,000,000 million Medicare recipients in the US), the adult incidence rate of Parkinson's is 0.0125, or 1.25%.

Sadly, I can't find a full copy of the study which isn't behind a pay wall. But, from the summary, it appears Parkinson's has some "clustering" based on both genetic and environmental factors. The text under the map on the article indicates areas in red have an adult incidence rate of 13.8% or more, so experiences such as yours are normal (albeit frightening).

So, yes, you're right to question that 1% statistic. It isn't sufficient to describe the situation at all when standing by itself.

Thanks wooster. You are the only person who actually answered my question. I guess this forum has a chance :)

I wonder if with the "graying" of baby boomers, the statistic is going to shoot up. I wouldn't be surprised if by 2020 the numbers would double, along with the projected retirement numbers. Of course, that would mean that the cluster areas would see rates close to 1 in 4 older adults, which would be truly scary!

Well, as a competing anecdote, I don't know anyone who has Parkinson's. And I haven't heard anyone I talk to in person say they know someone with Parkinson's.

You are confusing your personal experience with statistics. You can trivially find sources. Every single person you know might (unfortunately) have Parkinson's while the US population incidence remains around 1%.

You are confusing your personal experience with statistics.

We are not a bunch of 5-year olds around here, and I in particular am not so primitive as to think that the world revolves around me. There is nothing wrong with questioning mainstream journalism, especially when it's without citation and contradicts personal experience.

You can trivially find sources.

If so, wouldn't it be easy to paste a link, which is what I've requested in the first place? I hate the knee-jerk "google it" response - the person who gives it usually thinks that they are smarter than the person who asked for help in finding something, but all it shows is that you are (a) lazy and (b) disrespectful.

Now, if you can provide sources, please do, and if you cannot, I respectfully ask that you please leave this thread to people who care to contribute something other than "google it, stupid".

Why do you become so confrontational when someone deigns to correct you?

I am curious, are you being sarcastic? You just asked me why I would get upset when someone "deigns" (dict: to behave as if one is descending from a superior position or rank) to "correct" me (dict: to rebuke or punish in order to improve).

Your choice of words aside, I care about this forum, and I don't want it to become the usual deal where people assert their ego at the expense of actual discussion. My intent was not confrontation, it was cooperation.

Edit: Never mind. I see from your "ha ha ha" post below that you are trolling. I guess that answers my question.

The Bulgar in question has always been disrespectful, but it is usually worthwhile to listen to him anyway.

Can we say with some certainty that 'Parkinsons is not caused by a virus' ?

Hahahahaha.

(For reference: "I am well aware of the various ways to look at statistics." from http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1421249)

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