Two things a lot of startup employees are unaware of that are worth highlighting: they actually have to buy their options, which eats into returns, and that if they leave the company they have a limited window (30 days, typically) in which to do so. In would behoove them to save/plan for this fact.
This means you can find yourself valuing stock options very little, even in cases where you have full faith in the company making it and being very profitable. A growing company is very different year to year. What are the chances that you'll love the same company in 6 years?
My personal calculation is that I have a 50% chance of leaving a job every year, so if I am guessing that it'll take 6 years to IPO, and I don't think I can just keep large amounts of money frozen in options, I have to discount the value of said options over 95% on top of the traditional calculations. RSUs from he big four don't have that problem.
That's a very weird statement. Companies are under no obligation at all to ever offer stock to the public.
An IPO comes with all kinds of downsides and many companies simply do not feel the benefits weigh heavier than the downsides. Such as: transparency, SOX, all kinds of restrictions and demands regarding communications, dealing with the SEC (or the local equivalent) and so on.
I certainly didn't intent any offense.
None was taken :)
Apologies!
The price of the options eating into returns is reflected in the number we present (we assume a consistent valuation growth by stage and at exit), but taxes aren't and those can 40%+ in the US, which people don't necessarily expect. Limited exercise windows are one of the things we have in the list of ways this can go horribly wrong, but you are right that it is something that you can plan for if you know it's coming.
Thinking about it, that and early exercise might both be candidates for some sort of "list of questions to ask" tool...
See here for more: https://blog.wealthfront.com/qualified-small-business-stock-...
Yup. It honestly astounds me how many people don't factor this into their decision-making. Your only equity compensation on joining is the delta between your strike price and the current market value of your stock. This is often very little, far less than you give up in salary at many companies.
This tool doesn't explain the dynamics going into the estimated profits (though it links to things that do), but it helps people avoid over-estimating the value by missing dynamics like strike price.