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So we're not allowed to draw inferences now? It's not like tumblr is gonna issue a press release to spell it out, so waiting for that before talking about the thing seems counterproductive.

Signal is preferred to noise.

If you have actually worked at Tumblr, or another social company that has to deal with blocking accounts, and can provide some analysis of what goes into these decisions (is it automated? How many people are involved? How much discretion is given to individual employees? What are the legal implications if Tumblr did nothing?) that would be interesting and informative.

Tumblr has a bad reputation for suspending / terminating blogs with little to no reason. I do wish they were more transparent about their actions.

What's your point?

If Tumblr doesn't want bad publicity over it then they should tell people why their accounts are being closed.

They can't be bothered, so it's left to rumor and speculation.

This isn't a court of law. Intuition is permitted.