I think at some point the AI goalpost will move beyond "capable of human judgement" as well :) (see Asimov's stories of R.Daneel & R.Giskard for example).

I'm one of those who believes we'll crack AI (all aspects of it) at some point. I believe that the algorithm that our brains (and that of most animals) use is a very simple one that just needs tremendous parallel processing. I don't think anyone including IBM is yet thinking at that level (they work at too high a level for my tastes) and they do not consider enough of biology in their work (too computer-science-y, which prevents problem solving at the beginning).

I think it's just a matter of time before the neuroscientists have most of the details of brain and neuron functioning and we're able to decode the algo and replicate it on computers. And then it will be upto hardware progress to match first animal and then human intelligence.