From reading this fascinating piece, I (as one who is not technically proficient in any of the relevant areas) would conclude that AI-based approaches to computing can work well in the following areas: (1) you can program something in accordance with a strict set of limited rules and achieve amazing results, such as in computer chess, where today the advanced machines can basically outdo humans in playing that particular game, e.g., Deep Blue; (2) you can program something to use layered algorithms to find high degrees of probability that a particular objectively knowable fact is correct in response to someone inquiring about that fact, e.g. I.B.M. Watson; (3) you can custom-program something to enable someone to determine other forms of objectively verifiable relationships (such as mathematical comparisons or outcomes), e.g., Wolfram Alpha; and, (4) you can (at least theoretically) hard-wire a database to yield objective facts drawn from a vast body of custom knowledge manually programmed into a machine, albeit at an enormous cost in time and effort, thus gaining the benefits of mass storage, instant retrieval, and rapid replication but without drawing on the iterative power of computing devices and potential algorithmic solutions to the problem.

To me, all such approaches appear to throw in the towel on the question, "can AI-based computing ever achieve the equivalent of exercising human judgment?"

For example, in law, all sorts of questions can arise to which there is no "mechanical" answer - what is the best strategy to employ in a particular legal fight or litigation? what, among an array of complex alternatives involving tax, business risk, liability risk, and human factors, is the optimum way to merge two companies? or even the simpler but still judgment-based decision, is it best for me to set up my company in the form of an LLC or a corporation or some other form and what domicile should I choose? or involving personal decisions such as what techniques do I use to raise and train my kids in terms of education, morals, setting life goals, etc.

Are there AI proponents out there who believe that AI-based computing can ever handle such issues? To me, it seems evident that no algorithmic approach will ever be able to rise to the level of addressing such problems but this may just be based on my ignorance and lack of imagination.

Going back to law, for example, the article suggests that IBM may one day capitalize upon using a Watson-type machine to help people answer bureaucratic questions. I wonder about this if the approach is based purely on probabilities because, no matter what the data set, no one could ever know for sure that the answer is the correct one. At most, the AI-device could say, "this likely is a good starting point" and, beyond that, you are on your own to confirm whether it is accurate or not (which, of course, could make for a tremendously helpful resource in itself, as long as it is used properly).

I would think any such method would become hopelessly confused, though, in dealing with some knotty tax question, as for example, "determine my unrealized built-in gain in my C corp so that I know how much tax I have to pay on converting to S-corp status" (see here for the methodology on this, which is mind-numbing for all but CPAs steeped in tax minutiae: http://www.taxalmanac.org/index.php/Treasury_Regulations,_Su...). I could imagine a custom-programmed approach dealing with such questions but only one that is very specific to the problem at hand.

Don't mean to go on - I truly found this piece quite intriguing since, before reading it, I would (out of ignorance) have laughed at anyone who would have claimed that an AI-based machine could play "Jeopardy" in any meaningful way.

So my question to those who are knowledgeable in the HN community is this: are there other conceptual approaches that, given sufficient time and resources will potentially be capable of rising to the level where they can address the higher-level (judgment-based) sorts of issues I identify above or is this basically it?

For anyone interested, the Hollywood view of this sort of thing appeared in the 1957 movie "Desk Set," where a "Miss Watson" administered a machine called EMMANAC, which could give instant answers to questions expressed as normal people would ask them. This clip highlights the view of AI-computing as depicted in that movie: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdl9ynODxbk&feature=relat.... The broad theme is that of a group of researchers who resented the idea that their jobs were about to be eliminated by the impersonal beast, which Miss Watson, however, endearingly referred to as "Emmy."