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This is why we've probably passed "peak school". For many new graduates, ROI for college is negative. About half of new college graduates end up working in a job that doesn't require a college education.

(It's even worse in some third world countries on the way down. In Egypt, unemployment of college graduates is higher than for non-college graduates.)

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The overall aggregate ROI of college should be neutral, right? And therefore half the population will find their individual data points to be negative.

If the ROI of college aggregated over all consumers is positive, then the colleges are mispricing themselves. As capitalists, they should charge more until they capture all the consumer surplus and the aggregate ROI for all consumers converges to zero. This is more or less what has happened over the past generation. (Not all colleges are strictly capitalist, of course, but in broad strokes this is what we've seen.)

> In Egypt, unemployment of college graduates is higher than for non-college graduates.

If pay is also higher then college could still be +EV.

Thats not how EV works. It all depends what the increase in pay and unemployment are.

Which is exactly what the comment you are replying to said.

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