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Comment by hacker_9 | Hacker News Reader

The thing is we have a bigger problem: Brexit. Despite the fatigue of it, we now need strong leadership to exit the EU. If the vote is split, that'll weaken our country in a much more substantial way than any internet monitoring.

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The UK's weakness isn't rooted in a belief that May's majority in parliament is too narrow. It's pretty clear that, given the referendum, even Labour would have a hard time voting against Brexit.

The weakness is that Brexit is simply 5x worse for the UK than it is for the EU, at least economically. The UK does around 50% of its foreign trade with the EU, while for the EU, which is much larger, this represents only around 10% of trade.

The result of failed negotiations is, for the UK, widespread economic depression. For EU countries, it's a slight economic road bump. It's the same mechanism that makes it a much bigger deal for you to get hired by Google than it does for Google.

There's no amount of nationalism, tough talk, bluffing, or posturing Britain can do to change the fact that, at the end of the day, Europe can walk away from these negotiations at any time. Indeed, given the wish to clearly show, once and for all, the benefits of EU membership, failure may already be close to break-even. And even bureaucratic monsters have feelings–the Daily Mail may end up creating true European unity as a parting gift.

All this was obviously known before the referendum, which is why it's baffling to still not even see it being addressed in conservative circles, which instead continue to be rewarded for lying and riling up a nationalistic furore.

> The thing is we have a bigger problem

Indeed

Have you seen the economic state of some of the countries currently in the EU? The UK props the EU up in a big way, we are a massive contributor to it (hence why the EU is currently getting so defensive about us leaving). Also trade deals are something that will be sorted out, and both sides will want to keep costs low for import/export. At least, once the EU is done with it's posturing that is.

The UK's net contribution is less than 4 Billion Euro, which is like 5 or 6 Euro per citizen/yr. I think they'll manage.

But you're not addressing my point, which wasn't that Brexit isn't going to cost Europe anything. It will. The point is that, because of the size difference, it will cost Britain much more, and that such facts have an effect on negotiations.

we now need strong leadership to exit the EU

That's come up a lot, but in my opinion it's a meaningless soundbite. Domestic unity has essentially no impact on Brexit.

It does, because it means once the conservatives agree on something they have more sway to vote it in. And at this point in time I am tired of listening to Westminster fighting with itself, and making us as a whole look like a joke to the rest of the EU.

> and making us as a whole look like a joke to the rest of the EU.

Have you read the leaked details of the meeting between May and Juncker? [0] [1]

A lot of people on the continent already think May is a joke. What good does taking a "tough" stance do in negotiating with the EU? Sure, it looks good for the local electorate (especially as she's just called an election), but negotiations aren't about being "tough" they're about getting a good outcome for UK/EU citizens living in the respective countries (and a trade deal, if they ever get around to that).

Comments like "bloody difficult" [2] also don't help things. To those of us on the continent, it seems that the UK has decided to go with the "bull in a china shop" strategy with May.

The amount of animosity toward the EU coming from the UK is just stunning. We get it, you dislike the EU, hence why you voted to leave. But it seems like the UK government is intent to burn every last bridge with the EU through their rhetoric...

[0] https://twitter.com/jeremycliffe/status/858810953353367552?l...

[1] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/theresa-may-j...

[2] http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39784170

Admittedly I was unsure about Brexit to begin with, but ever since we said we are going to leave, the EU has been up in arms telling us we will be punished, and we have to pay €100 billion to even be allowed. Despite us being in the top 3 biggest contributors to the EU budget to begin with. I can firmly say since that this is not a group I want to be associated with.

> Despite us being in the biggest top 3 contributors to the EU budget

I've heard this argument given a lot in discussions about Brexit.

I don't agree with it, and here's why:

Yes, the UK is a top contributor to the EU budget. But view the EU as a marriage. When the UK joined, they agreed to pay their share of the living expenses (so to say).

When a human couple get a divorce, you don't get to go back and say "well I paid more than half of the living expenses, therefore they owe me X for all the excess contributions I made while we were married."

Nope, sorry. That's not how marriage works, and you can't go and say "well now that we're on worse terms, actually you owe me all that money back"

So, on to your next point:

> the EU has been up in arms telling us we will be punished, and we have to pay €100 billion to even be allowed.

Yeah, because the UK has made commitments before Brexit to fund EU programs. This is like a married couple buying a house together. When you split up, you either sell the house and split the proceeds, or someone buys the other one out. Since the EU isn't for sale, this is the UK buying out their portion of the commitment.

I just read today that the EMA faces $400 million in rent till 2039 on a London building they will be moving out of. [0]

So, please make up your mind. Either the UK has no responsibility to pay for its previous agreements, or the EU should also be allowed to break their previous agreements with the UK.

You can't eat your cake and have it too.

[0] http://www.politico.eu/article/report-ema-faces-e400m-decade...

Thanks for this - it's a good summary if the EU/UK positions.

It has a meaning:

Vote for candidate A whose compaign is centered around looking "strong".

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