Comment by developer2 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by developer2 | Hacker News Reader

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>> he/she/them are dead or lost the keys to their private wallet[...] the minute this coins move, the price will plummet. And you can be sure that many people are watching these coins, a move will be noticed. Immediately.

This aspect of BTC specifically makes me roar with laughter. The fact that anyone is willing to hope that Nakamoto's coins are "lost", discounting their very real value should he/she be sitting on that cash cow. What a great con on their part. You say trading of those coins will be noticed "immediately". The transaction log will cement that trade before (well, as) it's noticed. The only thing people will notice is the aftermath. Those who are personally monitoring the blockchain with automation will notify themselves within 5 minutes, while the public at large won't figure it out for hours. By the time the "BTC is now worthless" headlines hit the major news outlets, it will be too late for the average user to cash out.

It would be a great con, indeed. Going into hiding for 7 years so far, at a time when Bitcoin wasn't worth much, hoping that in time it will grow in value.

But tell me how to cash out any of those bitcoins that are supposed to be Satoshis without crashing the price? Just because it's on the blockchain doesn't mean anything as that only shows that those coins have changed ownership. They haven't been converted to fiat at that time.

Being able to sell on exchanges usually takes a few confirmations and by then, enough people will have heard the news of the coins moving and the price will already have plummeted significantly. Sure, those old coins would still be worth something but the actual monetary gain would be much less and Bitcoin itself might not survive such an event.

You could of course trade those coins over the counter, just sell the private keys or another method of an off-chain transaction but that still leaves the issue on how to cash out eventually?

The amount of dormant coins is not that large anymore. I read somewhere it's on the order of 30%. If they enter all at once the pool it would be a significant haircut for everyone else, but not the end. More significant risks are an 51% attack, a bug in the protocol, a bug in the implementation of a widely used client, or a major government making it illegal to trade them.

Ok - so I know nothing about investing, so genuine question: isn't that the time to buy?

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