That's a "brave" assertion to make about Bruce Schneier
Listening to the RiskyBusiness podcast, for instance, it's incredibly obvious that the community is fully in the tank for the Russian attribution hypothesis, and habitually carries the water for FiveEyes IC.
Meanwhile, we mere plebs have very little evidence to judge the community's beliefs by, other than blind faith in, say, CrowdStrike.
If the infosec community would like to actually state their case to the plebs, I would love to hear it. But all I've ever been able to find is "the phishing email is a little similar to something produced by APT28, and there was an IP once used by FancyBear like 5 years ago, so it's 99.9999% certainly Russia".
And nobody seems to care enough about those outside the community to even try to state the case.
I remember when Wasthington Post and others were claiming that Russia had hacked voting machines and that the infosec community agreed with that. All kinds of researchers reached out to complain but their voices were never heard. Instead the story was quietly dropped when it turned out it was PR and propaganda bullshit.
I'm sorry that you have an impression that there's an infosec consensus on this.
It doesn't exist.
My impression based on following "thought leaders" and listening to the most highly-regarded podcasts is that the community is, in fact, exactly as I described. (even the recent appointment of IC shill Jeff Man as a regular on Paul's Security Weekly has dramatically shifted his show in that direction.)
If you don't mind, can you recommend other people to follow/listen to that might balance out the impression I have received? Thanks.
Broadly though, punditry shouldn't be used as a proxy for consensus.
DNC hack: https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/74319706484310425... "Gosh, I wonder what outlet Russian intelligence is going to use to launder these stolen documents."
Podesta Hack: 14 year old hackers vs. Russian Intelligence
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/81662561706823680... "How many accounts did this "14 year old" hack? About 1800. In 2015. Who were these accounts? Mil, govt personnel in the West, defence cos, journos critical of govt in Russia etc"
DNC hack connected to German government hack
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/75689252388524032... "Reminder: Malware control servers used in DNC hack were also used in the hack on Bundestag linked to Russian intel."
Influencing politics
https://arstechnica.com/security/2016/06/guccifer-leak-of-dn... ""There's also the fact that the hacker is publishing documents at all, which rules out lots of nation-states," the PwnAllTheThings researcher told Ars in a private message. "China, for example, would happily spy on the DNC to try and get the Trump oppo [opposition] research to support their foreign policy objectives, but they wouldn't publish the documents to influence the election.""
So I don't really know how to resolve that for you.
The infosec community does not has a "consensus". If the article writer wanted to do something useful, please consider a deeper investigation and pressure the alphabet agencies to work together rather than against each one another.
He's very new to "geopolitics".
In fact, he's published a number of corrections on his blog about fundamentally incorrect predictions he's made about Shadow Brokers in particular (he predicted that their encrypted file they published was just random garbage and didn't actually contain any cyberweapons).
Here Bruce is speaking about things beyond his expertise. It's not particularly brave to point out the flaws in his analysis.