The whole article clearly show that is justified.
The risk is too high to let things as is today.
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BTW, probably some downvoters think I'm advocating to move this to some hipster language like JS or something like that.
I work mostly for enterprise-alike customers, have work for government projects, etc.
So I'm aware of the work here. Also, have helped to move decent-sized code bases, several times, from OLD->NEW.
> ~$1 Billion to convert their old system
If things in AU is alike my country, this cost is inflated... For some project Oracle bid our customers 10x more than ours at the time.
But this is beside the point, anyway.
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So, how this could be done?
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The first problem is the need to have a solid hardware+OS, where linux is not there.
Solution? Stay on mainframes. Is basic.
The second problem is OLD cobol + Zero understanding in why, how, where, etc is the full system. This is the big one.
This is alike find a OLD C codebase, made like 3 years ago. Or even better, a OLD B codebase (or any kind of precursor to C, if it exist at the time...).
And pretend the solution is to STAY WITH THE OLD CODEBASE. For DECADES.
IS THIS MADDNESS!
NOT, IS IT!!!!
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So, you build a better COBOL. Like CoffeScript->Js. You star moving the code from OLD to NEW. In the process, you document, and build testing. You end with a better cobol (or a transpiler) with a proper toolchain.
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This can be look as the progress with another bad language, JS. You start with something terrible, with a huge installed base, yet, you star moving torwards something else.
In the process, you can do something alike ASM.js but for cobol, and whola, you can transpile other languages.