I knew I should have put a bet on this, we were never going to leave Europe. Which ever parties manifesto says stay in Europe will win - end of story.
What would happen without Corbyn is anyone's guess though.
This is basically to get a higher majority in the commons, so things can go through unimpeded.
The real danger for her is presumably that MPs don't give her the mandate to hold the election at all, which would potentially mean we get yet another new and unelected PM.
This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. Opinion polls have pretty consistently shown very little change in overall sentiment on Brexit. In many cases they seem to have observed marginally more regret among Leave voters than Remain voters, but the numbers were small enough in both cases that it probably wouldn't have affected the referendum result itself, and surely far too small to have much effect on a general election result.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-...
"Four per cent of Leave voters polled said they thought Brexit was the worst thing to have happened this year,"
The result was 51% leave 49% remain, it would be the reverse if they could vote again today.
Even so, it was still well within the margin of error. Your rounding was misleading: the referendum result was 51.9% to 48.1%, almost a 4% gap.
It also still assumed, probably incorrectly, no remorse on the Remain side to cancel out the remorse from Leavers.
But probably more significantly than any of that, I think every other poll I've seen from reasonably credible sources in recent months has pointed the other way. The one you're talking about appears to have been an anomaly.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/br...
Regarding detailed analysis, you might find the Ashcroft polls interesting if you haven't seen them before. He did a write-up shortly after the referendum[1], primarily about who voted which way and why. Then there have been a couple more interesting ones just a few days before today's announcement as well[2,3], looking at current expectations regarding Brexit and more general voting intentions.
Spoilers for [1]: The top three reasons identified for Leave voters were (most significant first) sovereignty, immigration, and lack of control over ever closer union and EU expansion in the future. The top three reasons identified for Remain voters were the economic risks of leaving, Single Market access without being in the Eurozone or Schengen area being seen as the best of both worlds, and the feeling of becoming more isolated if we left.
Spoilers for [2]/[3]: Everything you've been assuming about the Tories being dominant in British politics today is true, except that you've probably underestimated just how utterly dominant they actually are and how unpopular both Labour and the Lib Dems are. It's going to be a long few weeks if you're not a blues fan.
[1] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-...
[2] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/new-political-landscape...
[3] http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-res...
So 4% of 'leave' voters regret voting leave and 2% of 'remain' voters regret voting 'remain'. So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages.
No, it wouldn't. Your maths is off by about a factor of two, one way or another.
Can you clarify what you meant here?
Some of the possible (likely?) Brexit outcomes mean a closed border with customs posts and the end of agricultural subsides or the ability to sell agricultural products cross-border.
There is a clause in the Good Friday Agreement for referendums on Irish reunification: http://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-border-poll-3136932-...
To be clear, I don't think anything nefarious was done to engineer this, but it's a hugely distorting effect on national politics RN.
It's just not going to sway nearly enough people to win a majority, and the Tories know that.
That decision potentially alienates about 1/3 of their previous voter base who voted to Leave, as well as those who did want to Remain but either don't believe in overriding a popular referendum on democratic principles or don't feel strongly enough on the issue to disrupt things further.
Given that we're talking about the Lib Dems here, all of those could be significant groups. It's quite a gamble to bet your whole political strategy on attracting enough voters from other parties because they feel so strongly on Europe, and according to recent polling, it looks like it's a gamble that is going to fail unspectacularly.
Without such a gamble the LibDems will remain in the also-ran group with UKIP and the Greens. You push any issue that gives you a wedge and use it to crack a few ridings and if necessary you write off the 1/3 in the hope of picking up 2/5 of the two larger parties.
FWIW, I know from immediate personal contacts that it does, and not in entirely trivial numbers. I'm in one of the most pro-Remain areas of the country, but also a LD/Lab marginal, so it will be interesting to see what happens as a result. I suspect it won't make much difference here, but if the same effect is evident in more moderate parts of the country, it could actually hurt them.
It looks like there's been another poll today that is consistent with what I've seen reported previously: about 1/3 of Lib Dem voters at the last election voted Leave in the referendum, and currently Lib Dem loyalty is lowest among the major parties, with a similar proportion of Lib Dem voters at the last election expecting to vote for someone else at the next one.