> I don't buy the independent discovery idea
That's fair -- and like I said it could have happened. If I did pick it up, I'd be willing to bet it came from print sources and not computer sources. Using Xs as a placeholder is absolutely commonplace. But I remember sitting at my computer and searching for TODO, and then trying a few things before settling on XXX TODO. I tried "TODO TODO" and "(asterisk)(asterisk)TODO(asterisk)(asterisk)" and stuff like that... XXX TODO was simpler to type and easier to see.
What I don't really buy is that this is a "discovery" at all. This doesn't seem worthy of attribution as a thing, not as a meme or as something that stands out as particularly useful or particularly widespread either. There are a bunch of conventions for TODO comments, and XXX isn't everywhere by any stretch.
The kind of thing that I know I picked up elsewhere is 0xDEADBEEF, and that's the kind of thing that feels more worthy of investigation & attribution to me.