Comment by abpavel | Hacker News Reader

Comment by abpavel | Hacker News Reader

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Well, he tried aligning Turkey to Europe, paving the way for EU membership, visa-free travel, and even shot down Russian's plane to show his European alignment. That was the crest of the Western wave for him. Once he saw that EU is just a pipe dream, and after through discussion with Putin, he decided on a new way, returning his people back to the Islamic roots, purging opposition, and controlling ethnic groups, especially Kurds, who pose a big problem considering they are over 10% of the population, and would eventually want independence, hence Kurdish activity in Syria.

Sad outcome. Especially with 99% or so voting turnout, and such a close result. 97-99% voting turnout on such a large scale is a classic telltale sign of fabrication balloting, and was standard since at least CCCP, just like in Crimea independence referendum. With such a close result it would mean he was losing 70/30 by vote on a standard 70% turnout, but padding his numbers by 30% with his ballots was sufficient for him to maintain grip and win. Each successive referendum will make him stronger, unleashing his full potential without pesky opposition "provocateurs".

Hum. There are people who think he used the EU membership as a way of leverage against the military. Turkey couldn't be part of the EU with this military threat, so it had to tame its military to be accepted as a modern democracy. This enabled Erdogan to progressively regain control over the army helped with the pressure from the EU, eliminating the remaining counter-power to islamism in Turkey. I think the EU has been a useful idiot in this process. Now a EU membership is out of question on the EU side and Turkey doesn't show any sign of being interested anymore anyway.

"Democracy is just the train, but not the final destination.", is a AKP slogan I remember from a documentary on Erdogans long road to power.

I would also support the opinion that Erdogan used the EU integration process to selectively weaken the kemalist/military grip on Turkey's institutions. While you could point out that the EU were a 'useful idiot', IMHO there was never a realistic chance of Turkey joining the EU. The reasons are multifold, most important ones being the resistance of the EU population in major EU countries such as Germany, France and Poland. In that regard, I think, EU politics were not on an honest basis and just a game.

I had also assumed that Turkey's occupation of Cyprus, its refusal to take responsibility for the Armenian genocide, and its antipathy toward the Kurds were additional dealbreakers for EU membership.

"There are people who think he used the EU membership as a way of leverage against the military"

Those people are obviously not Turkish. The military, by its founding from Ataturk, gives ZERO damns about membership, in fact they were pretty much established to STOP various forms of state 'membership' including religious.

You think he walked a geopolitical he planned long ago ? With news showing putin had influences on Trump long ago too, it seems we're witnessing a very nice international long con.

I would say he was set on this path long before he shot down that Russian plane.

Turnout was 86%. Vote manipulation is very likely, but it wasn't done that blatantly. More blatant was the suppression of the opposition during the campaign.

It's a bit a similar scenario as with Russia: There might have been a moment in the past at which the West (or in the case of Turkey, specifically the EU) missed the opportunity to successfully pull the country towards a deep integration with the West/Europe.

However, since no one can replay history, no one can be sure that this actually would have happened. Erdogan would still have been himself, with the same corrupt attitude and religiously fanatic mind.

A muslim country joining the EU is a pipe dream. The days of Ottoman rule are hardly forgotten in the Balkans. There is zero chance you'd have Turkey, countries from former Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Romania, not to mention Greece and Hungary in the same union. Just having Greece and Turkey in the EU is a laughable prospect.

Having France and Germany in the EU was a laughable prospect in 1945. Having eastern European countries in the EU was a laughable prospect in 1989. Circumstances change.

Well yes, that's why the EU was created. War with France was merely a distraction to create an united Germany:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14144819

Erdogan and those closest to him are not religious fanatics. Religion is just a tool for them to gain and consolidate power.

Maybe not fanatic, but a bit weird?

"One cannot be secular and a Muslim."

"If the skies and the ground were to open against us. If floods and volcanoes were to burst, We will not turn from our mission. My reference is Islam."

"Our minarets are our bayonets, Our domes are our helmets, Our mosques are our barracks."

I've read a fair share of articles about his rise and background and was left with the impression that he always has been rather religiously conservative. But maybe that's the wrong conclusion. On the other hand, how can you be sure? It is hard to know whether someone is a religious fanatic or just uses it as a tool.

You are conflating different things.

The EU accession project was abandoned long before Syria, when it became clear a lot of EU countries (Germany above all) were not going to allow it for fear of increased migration numbers. Since then, Erdogan dropped any pretense of liking the democratic process and the rule of law, which were supposed to be strengthened as precondition of joining the EU. He used the real issue of corruption in the secular army as an excuse to strengthen his own position.

The kurdish issue is a long-standing problem and Erdogan uses them for classic "pressure management ": whenever he's under threat, he whips out the kurdish enemy to solidify his support. He's done this pretty much continuously since taking power, making a bit of progress on peace efforts to keep up appearances then cracking down whenever he needs a popularity boost. Like black and red terrorist groups in '70s Italy, kurdish groups are likely infiltrated at all levels by authorities.

Erdogan's wobbling on Syria had little to do with alignment with Putin or the US, and more to do with him initially betting on ISIS then backtracking once it became clear US and Russia weren't going to accept it anymore. The Russian plane shot down and subsequent apology was the end of that particular game, nothing to do with long-term alignment. Turkey had already denied their US bases for a number of operations before then.

Erdogan is not a pawn or even a solid ally to this or that front, he just plays his own fascist game.

> and even shot down Russian's plane to show his European alignment

The first part of your comment denotes a misunderstanding of the situation.

Turkish forces shot down the Russian plane in response to Russia's bombing of the Turkmen (Turkish minority in Syria) rebels. Turkey/US stance in Syria is also divided because the US supports Kurdish groups, just not those aligned with the PKK.

EU membreship is achieved by democracy, checks and ballances, economic stability, not by shooting down Russian planes. EU officials go out of their way to avoid conflict with Russia. Many were for less tougher sanctions than those imposed by the Obama administration.

You are right about Turkey joining the EU being a pipe dream. Turkey's alliances should be with other countries with similar cultures (Turkmenistan, Kazahstan, etc.).

Are you claiming Erdogan had orders out to shoot down a Russian plane?

That seems unfounded.

It seems most of your post is your own take, which is fine, but you're posting it as received knowledge.

Let's do one thing, then let's do the opposite.

This shows Erdogan's (lack of) principles.

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