It is already happening in the US, just slightly differently. Befitting our "national character", as the Chinese term it, our great wall is made of advertising.

Deep packet inspection is here today for Comcast and other ISP customers. The nominal reason for the surveillance is typical adtech panty-sniffing, but of course the data is also available for subpoena, assuming ISPs actually ask for one, or just freely given out (that's more of an ATT thing).

And given that we know the FBI recruits Geek Squad techs to become informants and collaborators[1], who really thinks the FBI, DEA or another TLA won't do the same/hasn't already started doing the same with, say, network techs at Comcast? The same come-ons that worked for the Stasi work just fine elsewhere.

The people down-voting this comment, if they're doing so out of the belief that "it won't happen here", are simply wrong.

The surveillance-entertainment complex was born in the US, and the tools are massively attractive to anyone who covets power. Anyone who doesn't think the world-empire of the day will use them is deluding themselves.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/if-a-best...

> These men [Cheney and Rumsfeld] planned for suspension of the Constitution, not just after nuclear attack, but for any “national security emergency,” which they defined in Executive Order 12656 of 1988 as: “Any occurrence, including natural disaster, military attack, technological or other emergency, that seriously degrades or seriously threatens the national security of the United States.”

http://www.finalcall.com/artman/publish/Perspectives_1/Chene...

for a great firewall you have two choices

1) block SSL/TSL traffic and VPNs at the border

2) Man in the middle attack (this would needs browsers to accept certificates with a matching wildcard domain )

(1) would block internet commerce at the border - this is not acceptable in western countries were free trade is above everything else. (2) is a problem because the wildcard certificates will leak out and criminals will use them, this will eliminate trust and kill internet commerce internally (also it is quite resource intensive)

In any event a great firewall is a great tragedy: for Russia that would mean the end of any remaining freedom of speech and an end to the independent opposition - for example Navalny will no longer be able to mobilize anyone. Its a fact how freedom of communication directly translates into political liberties; block one of them and you loose the other... (it is also a Pyrrhic victory for the Russian state because limiting information results leads to ptechnological backwardness)

So for the meantime that means that a great firewall in a western country is very unlikely. Of course internet pundits said that of Russia at the turn of this century.... so the fact remains that it is impossible to predict anything.

TIL: the great firewall of china is called golden shield ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Shield_Project ) in Russia they might as well call it "stalin's pipe"