Yeah, Cruise seems to be doing a great job. Argo has a great founding team, but there are still a lot of things that can go wrong. While I'd give Argo the edge in technical competence (I realize that's not a very meaningful statement considering the age of the company), what really matters is building the right product at the right time. You can have a ton of great engineers and still not accomplish much in the market - just look at Waymo and Uber.

The way I see it, at least in the US, it's really GM vs Ford (which is Cruise vs Argo). Waymo has a management crisis and lost most of their top talent, and Uber is hemorrhaging talent (and money). Apart from that there are various startups but I don't believe they'll ever get the money necessary to compete with the big players - even Google gave up on that front.

Outside the US I'm excited to see what happens with Volvo, which says they'll have 100 stage 4 vehicles delivered to customers by the end of the year.