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The worst models have always had really nasty asymptotes near the end, and it would certainly appear that we've reached that point in at least one critical system. Given the other issues arising at the same time (permafrost melting, methane release, coral bleaching...) it's not hard to see this as the beginning of the end.

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Have models tended to predict disproportionate high-latitude warming?

Yes. "When climate warms or cools, the changes are generally much more drastic at high latitudes than they are closer to equator. Temperatures measured in ice core bore holes in Greenland show, for instance, that central Greenland temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum were about 20 degrees lower than today while the tropics were only a couple of degrees cooler."

http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/research/climatechange/mo...

That implies that climate is at a relatively unique place. I mean, there's arguably no way that Greenland temperatures will be higher than tropical temperatures. But I guess that makes sense, in that we're in an interglacial.

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