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Comment by joshgel | Hacker News Reader

I agree with your comments entirely. I'll also add, however, that even though this is cohort data 1) there is A LOT of data, almost all of it in agreement for hundreds and hundreds of studies, over millions of person years and 2) there is pretty strong evidence of a dose-response relationship. Both of those two points help (though don't entirely eliminate) the weaknesses inherent in cohort data.

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It doesn't change the fact that if you take approx 150 from each of the activity groups, the cohort study will tell:

Approximately 5 from the "slobs" will die.

Approximately 4 from the "moderate exercise group" will die.

Approximately 3 from the "forrest gump group" will die.

On a personal level, to me these groups are more or less the same in terms of mortality, but somebody marketed the 20% really well.

I understand your point, while not detracting from the benefits of exercise, eating well, having moments of calm, etc,etc, these studies when reduced to a personal level become nonsensical, while one can make choices that at a 'group' level might suggest cause and effect, when the sample size is one, and it's you, the 'odds' are of little consequence, what is happening to you is the reality, knowing some malaise is is common, rare, or influenced by some life factors has no bearing...

Well if you truly don't understand math, please transfer 20% of your wealth to me. I mean, from your perspective it's the same amount of wealth, right?

that's not the point, the posters point is that the way the math was used added dramatic effect, it did not aid in understanding the meaning of the findings.

Exactly. 20% or 40% sounds really big. In reality, you're maybe lowering your chance to die (during some time) by less than 2% by exercising almost constantly. Now, if you're not enjoying exercise, or feel exhausted after exercising, you actually reduce the amount of "quality life" by exercising.

If exercise was a drug, they'd never allow it on the market.

> If exercise was a drug, they'd never allow it on the market.

Plenty of drugs have much worse efficacy and "numbers needed to treat" figures than exercise.

Current exercise advice is about 30 minutes per session with 3 sessions a week.

Not really. Take your 30 minutes of exercise per week that will reduce the chance of dying by 1% (2% is for the forrest gumps). Let's say you can do that by spending 60 minutes a day (changing clothes, getting dressed / undressed, showered and so on). In a 52-week year that will amount to loss of 156 hours of your life. For 8-hour work days that's 19.5 workdays. A good vacation's worth! No drug is allowed to do that.

And if you break your ankle or break your wrist or elbow when exercising, it'll never be as good as new.

What a silly set of arguments. Exercise is literally empty time for you with no other benefit? Lets put aside the fact that you receive endorphin from almost any exercise you do. You can't go to the beach, rock climb, play with your kids/dog, etc.? No, must be productive all the time. Even if that was the case, it's quality adjusted lifespan that counts for most people.

You may break your wrist sure. In the same way that you may get wrist injury from typing too much. Exercise will reduce the likelihood of other injury.

Ugh, your comment is so stupid I can't even be bothered to think of a proper reply.

In real world terms, holding on to the banister when going up and down stairs and sitting down when putting on your trousers on are real life extenders :)

This is the correct answer. Mobility is more important than exercise. You'll lose mobility by breaking bones.

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