My guess is that with all the whining CEOs in the Bay Area do about "how hard it is to find talent", this is the start of a long-term trend. Rents in the Bay Area have gone up about 10%/year for the last five years running (anecdote: my room cost 850/month five years ago, I moved out when it hit 1300/month) and with the new "Affordable housing" mandates (which the SF electorate voted for) coming into play, pretty much all construction is going to stop, because the economics of cross-subsidizing 1/3 of units (the new requirement) with the other two is pushing the unsubsidized units out of reach for all but the highest income-earners.
This place is mortgaging its future, and people are right to want out.
To be clear, I have no issues with divorcing salary from location for a remote company. But it probably means you're paying generous salaries for people living in cheap locations and you'll have trouble hiring anyone who must must must live in SF for... reasons.
Of course, for an all-remote company to adjust salaries by a five or ten thousand bucks based on location if someone moves, like some do, that just seems like they're trying to nickel and dime the person under the guise of being fair.
I understand paying remote workers less than someone on site since there may be productivity gains that come from that. However, remote is remote. Once someone is a remote employee it should make no difference if they're in Manhattan or Milwaukee.
For what it is worth - we're not out to benchmark against "Bay Area rates". We generally will lose in head-to-head compensation with any large, on-site technical organization in the Bay Area (Google, Facebook, Netflix, etc.) - but we try and be consistent and competitive (6 fig eng, health, retire, etc.) anywhere else in the world - no matter where you are (suburbs of Chicago, middle-of-nowhere-Kansas, metro Pittsburgh, Barcelona, etc.). Check out a few of our other comments for more details.
Scenario A: More companies pay equally remote vs. local
Scenario B: cost-of-living adjustments mean companies pay the local prevailing wage of where the employee is located.
My prediction is that we'll get about 80% scenario A and 20% scenario B. Remotes might take a hit but it won't be large, and that's based on elasticity of demand -- I suspect companies have a less elastic demand for talent overall, vs. employee willingness to move.
Manhattan and SV don't have a monopoly on great engineers for the vast majority of engineering roles.
Remotes won't take the hit. It's those who for some reason (family, prestige, other) are stuck in these centres.