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Comment by grabcocque | Hacker News Reader

Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.

Ah yes, like the 'current polling' at the time suggested the UK would definitely remain in the EU, or that President Clinton was a surefire thing.

They underestimated the No vote last time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scotti...

The "Project Fear" approach was used successfully in the 2014 referendum and then failed in 2016 because very smart political strategists such as Dominic Cummings worked out how to counter it.

Given that the approach used to achieve the Brexit vote has been documented in great detail I wonder how we'll see them applied in this new referendum?

The approach used to achieve the Brexit vote was to lie about everything and to write off rational reality-based objections as "Project Fear."

Unfortunately in international politics, winning a vote at home doesn't translate to a winning move internationally.

The huge disconnect between how Brexiters think the world works and how the world really works isn't subject to a popular vote or to media spin. It is going to cause the UK - well, England - catastrophic problems over the coming decade.

This is no bluff, this is a real action. If you want a poker metaphor, this is a raise.

If anyone's bluffing in this environment, it has to be Theresa May; the Brexit plan is far less coherent than the plan for an independent Scotland, it's not clear what cards she might hold that have any value, and her ministers are briefing against her in the Times.

You may be right, but keep in mind that the SNP managed to take 58 out of 59 possible seats in a recent election. Calling the bluff of someone who can campaign to a result as good as that... hm...

Yes, although that's entirely a result of FPTP in a non-proportional system.

FPTP plays a role, but "entirely"? Winning 40+% per cent of the vote isn't easy in the first place, and directing the campaigning effort well enough to win 58 out of 59 single-seat districts is a rare feat.

(Note that this isn't just an SNP move – it's the policy of the Scottish Greens as well as other civic groups)

The outcome of the vote could fall either way, but it's certainly not a bluff. Current support for independence is Scotland is around 45-50%; there was a clear indication in the current government's manifesto that a referendum would be held if the UK exited the EU.

Wasn't that the plan for Brexit referendum, to shut UKIP up? That turned out well.

Like they ever would have gone away even if the vote was over 60% to remain. They'd have demanded a second referendum (and 3rd and 4th and 5th...) until they got the result they wanted.

As Farage said: "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it."

It was around 52-48 and they have declared it finished business...

Anyone with objections to a slim majority making such a sweeping decision is met with, "leave one, get over it."

I had expected them to wait until 2019 given that's the probable date for the next general election. I think they might be timing this to coincide with Article 70 notification this week. Apart from people's fears about what that will mean, there's a chance of adverse reactions from the markets and business which might focus Scots' minds on what could happen.

They're definitely not bluffing. Clue's in the name.

I think you mean Article 50

Yes, probably 2020 on the election too, but there was some talk of a referendum in 2019. Will not edit ... Article 50 possibly as early as tomorrow.

Maybe they are bluffing in the sense that their request will almost certainly be denied at this point, and it may very well be they are banking on that.

I certainly think there is a sense that to get a poll on a timeline they want, they need to start pushing now, because they know they can expect resistance.

"their request will almost certainly be denied at this point"

I can't imagine anything that would increase support for independence more than any hint that we wouldn't be allowed to have another referendum.

[OK - apart from BoJo being PM].

Possibly. And maybe I'm overstating the chance they'll be refused because of course Theresa May will be aware of that. At the same time I expect the Tories to be ultra-sensitive to the reality of the Brexit vote, where people were also quite certain Remain had it in the bag for very long.

At the same time, note Nicola Sturgeon's statements about how this isn't up to Westminster. Legally, of course, it currently is. But she's setting Theresa May up to use a refusal as a "look how undemocratic Westminster is" if it's refused. Look for attempts to bypass Westminster if it's slapped down - which may be serious, or may also be designed out of expectation they'll cause unfavourable reaction to another Westminster slap-down.

Their massive majority of Scottish MPs also mean they will be able to paint any Westminster refusal as England dictating Scottish issues.

It's very much a lose-lose for Theresa May in any case. If a vote is accepted, then it will be a constant distraction during the Brexit negotiations, for example, where any whiff of results negative to Scotland will be exploited for what it's worth...

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