We should always look for the simplest explanation but be willing to acknowledge and embrace our ignorance too.

Your attitude turns people off science; it's a plodding, unimaginative attitude that pours cold water on every novel idea without even bothering to explore it properly. The history of science is full of discoveries resulting from accident or whimsy, and I think speculation is an important exercise. Nobody ever got to the top of a mountain by meticulously documenting every step of the route.

So there's a risk you'll pin some hopes on an idea that turns out to be wrong. That shouldn't be bad for your career unless you do it all the time. A scientist who is never wrong about anything isn't taking any risks.