> That's the problem: we can't even say that.

The paper you cite says that most published research is false.

You infer from this that published research is no better than no source.

But this is wrong! If published research is true 30% of the time, but people's intuitions (on questions research is published on) are so only say 10% of the time, then going with published papers is a better choice.

I'd like to know if people feel, after reading TFA (or the psychology literature), how likely it is that people are wrong most of the time on important questions.