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Comment by am_i_down | Hacker News Reader

Are you serious? It is largely a reaction to globalization and the refugee crisis.

> It is largely a reaction to globalization and the refugee crisis.

If that is indeed the real reason, it means we as a species have hilariously overblown reactions to perceived threats.

And (in many countries) significantly underestimate the the threat from actual threats like pollution and climate change.

I've been working on a project related to greenhouse gas emission savings lately and it's depressing how "massive" gains in efficiencies are a drop in the bucket of total emissions.

It certainly doesn't have to be a physical threat. People respond extremely negatively historically to forces that alter the culture they are used to or prefer.

If you take 30 million people from African Muslim majority nations and drop them into France in the next few decades, would the French culture remain unchanged? No, it would change dramatically. The people of France would react as you'd expect to the notion of that cultural change. The people of France - in my opinion - largely believe their culture works, that it is very valuable, that it is beneficial to their quality of life. Why would they want to see it change substantially? There will be something like a billion plus more people living in Africa and the Middle East in just the next 25 or 30 years, while the population of Europe contracts. Europeans have one of two choices to make in that time: heavily lock down immigration, or allow vast cultural change (and I'm sure it'll vary widely from nation to nation what occurs).

Is this news to anyone?

What's the big deal with climate change and famine? I am sitting in an air-conditioned room and have a pantry full of food! We as a species have hilariously overblown reactions to perceived threats.

The smug your-problem-aren't-real attitude by the elite is certainly another reason for populism.

> Are you serious? It is largely a reaction to globalization and the refugee crisis.

The financial crisis is the real problem. The refugee crisis is just another problem on top of the existing one... Basically people already struggling to make end meet, don't want extra cheap labour in the market.

Yeah, I was gonna say early Climate Change effects and Automation/AI's wealth concentration. Just wait until the Genetic Engineering really starts rolling now that we have CRISPR-CAS9.

Resistance to smallpox for those that can afford it or are useful?

Meh, mortality rate would be bad, but not as bad as it was in those days. IVs help a lot with dehydration, which they did not have. You'll need something more lethal to accomplish the terrifying and sadistic goal of being the worst thing to have happened to the world since the dinosaurs. Likely, we will just mumble along like we always have through the black death, polio, etc.

What made you doubt my seriousness? Of course I am serious. I am not aware of how bad refugee crisis. Sure, people are complaining but we are not talking about millions of refugees that change the social fabric altogether. Globalization has been going on for decades now and things do seem to have improved for many. Why now?

> ...but we are not talking about millions of refugees that change the social fabric altogether.

That is exactly what people are talking about. [1-5]

> Globalization has been going on for decades now and things do seem to have improved for many. Why now?

Things have improved for some, generally in different countries than the places where things have gotten much worse. See the decline of middle America. Add an elite class who's comfortable with and encourages income inequality [6], and you get lots of anger and backlash. Especially if you only call the people with complaints about globalization ignorant and racist for caring about their own self interest.

1. http://www.nationalreview.com/article/445237/sweden-crime-ra...

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_grenade_attacks_in_Swe...

3. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2523332/migrants-sexually-assa...

4. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/eight-iraqi-migrants...

5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57Zk3TUNRBs

6. http://paulgraham.com/ineq.html

> millions of refugees that change the social fabric altogether

Note that there were slightly over 1 million applications for asylum in Europe in 2015 [1]. I can't find numbers for totals in 2016, but [2] has some raw statistics & charts. Note that these numbers don't account for migrants that don't apply for asylum (which could be a very small or a very large percentage, but is likely non-zero).

I can't speak for the "changing the social fabric" bit though.

[1]: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911

[2]: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/...

[cache of 2]: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ki9SPSv...

This is such FUD.

How would preventing US citizens from coming to the EU prevent African and Middle Eastern refugees to come to Europe?

I prefer a Middle Eastern or African to a Trump supporter. It's just too dangerous to let them in to spread their ideology. ;-)

Safe to say, Trump supporters aren't traveling to europe.

This isn't true, his base of support is motivated by any number of factors and many of them are financially well off.

Plenty of his political supporters would be happier if he behaved more like the usual politicians but will put up with his shenanigans as long as they get what they want from him.

I meant that the refugee crisis fueled populism, not that it prompted this potential visa change for US citizens.

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