Yeah... Not going to happen. Americans spend billions on European vacations, and nobody is going to threaten that when push comes to shove (any additional hassle is going to send people to Cancun instead). This is just posturing.
they're proposing requiring full visas for US citizens if the US doesn't comply, the sort where you have to book an appointment with the consulate for an interview and pay several hundred dollars.
I seriously doubt that an actual visa will be as cheap.
[1] It's a huge form because, to quote Wikipedia,
> The presumption in the law is that every nonimmigrant visa applicant (except certain employment-related applicants, who are exempt) is an intending immigrant unless otherwise proven. Therefore, applicants for most nonimmigrant visas must overcome this presumption by demonstrating that:
* The purpose of their trip is to enter the U.S. for a specific, intended purpose;
* They plan to remain for a specific, limited period; and
* They have a residence outside the U.S. as well as other binding ties which will ensure their return at the end of their stay.
* that's only counting leisure travelers, there might be many more business travelers?
If one gets denied the ESTA, like the US system he'd get refunded $10 of the $14 and if he stills want to travel, he would then have to show up to the embassy for a real, couple of hundreds dollars visa, similar to what today's countries who are not part of the ESTA program have to go through to visit the US.