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Comment by vectorpush | Hacker News Reader

Consider that 41% of those surveyed conclude that machines will never be able to "simulate learning and every other aspect of human intelligence". The next 41% conclude it is possible within an unbounded "more than 50 years". It seems to me that the vast majority of experts are pretty skeptical.

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That's not 41%, that's 4.1%. When asked when there would be a 90% of AI, the median answer was 2075.

No. It's definitely 41%. Look at page 6 of your link

    The earliest that machines will be able to simulate learning and every other
    aspect of human intelligence:
    
    Within 10 years 6 5%
    Between 11 and 25 years 3 2%
    Between 26 and 50 years 14 11%
    More than 50 years 50 41%
    Never 50 41%
    Totals 123 100%

That's in the prior work section. It's a much older survey of one specific conference.

And was the other survey a comprehensive survey of everybody?

The divergence in poll results seems to suggest we should put even less credence on polls here than usual.

It was in 2006 which is way before AI started seeing it's recent progress. And it was a conference full of old fashioned AI people.

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