> Routing paths are much harder to find when values are considered.
Hard, yes, but definitely possible. There was some great work done on P2P routing for Lightning by the developers at BitFury.
http://bitfury.com/content/5-white-papers-research/whitepape...
> We could end up making more on-chain transactions ... Well, it will have to close one of its existing channels. So the process for making a transaction when your wallet can’t find a route is: 1) Make an on-chain transaction closing out an existing channel. 2) Make an on-chain transaction opening a new channel with the payee.
This is not true. You can close an existing channel and open a new one in a single transaction.
> The vast majority of users will be offline.
Some will, some won't. Some will set this up on a VPS, some will use hosted services, some will be professional liquidity providers (early adopters with lots of coins?) that have a machine dedicated to this.
He's making a prediction that he cannot really support in any way.
> Channels cannot be created on-the-fly.
RBF is opt-in, only if you mark your transaction as such. If you don't want RBF, don't use RBF. His assertion that RBF is somehow required is not true.
> Recipients have to be online.
Yes, they do. This is perfectly fine for some use-cases, and not good for others. For use-cases where the recipient is offline, people can always resort to on-chain transactions.
I'm not sure what this has to do with hubs, though.
Basically, he's making tons of assumptions and guesses (some of them based on incorrect/outdated technical information). You should go and read-up yourself on the technology and the improvements the developers are coming up with.