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Great. Any thoughts on parameter values?

According to Fred, 2 in 3 startups return even or fail, and 1 in 3 succeed.

Assuming I'm doing as well as he is (which I doubt) and that an exiting startup gets 10x the input, the formula suggests 25% or so.

This seems high. Also, startups are not independent bets. Who knows?

I've done 34-ish investments. One small exit. Two are doing very well. Two or three dead companies (sometimes, it is hard to tell.)

34ish and you say you're a junior angel?

I guess that makes me a junior associate at best.

I can't or won't negotiate terms, lead a round, syndicate a deal, or sit on a board.

So that makes me subordinate to people who do these things; they are therefore my senior.