In relation to programming specifically, I once saw someone on Quora put it perfectly. It effecticly stated that we don't need more programmers. We need more senior developers with 10+ years of experience.
I have worked at a few places that just didn't take people out of school at all, because they saw that the amount of time the typical graduate they got was a net negative to productivity, compared to how long people stayed at the company, didn't add up. They figured out that in their case, given their relative inability to tell the highly productive recent grads from those that would not be productive in a year, that it was better for them to spend resources paying experienced people really well, and letting other companies sort out the good and the bad. Thinking like that leads to some kind of farm system: People that are just body shops, where the good people manage to go to a next tier of company quality.
A shortcut for this is a degree from a nice enough university, as there are many companies out there that will interview anyone coming from a prestigious university, but would not give the time of the day to a recent graduate from, say, Missouri Rolla.
And let's not forget the madness that is interviewing in big tech companies. All of that 'optimizing to avoid false positives' idea is really saying that people that don't have a specific interviewing shape, but are very good when at a job, don't have a chance. I have a job at one of those tech companies, but some of my favorite developers from earlier in my career just can't pass the interviews, even though I think they are, in practice, better than your averaged hip company employee.
So it all comes down to how we are terrible at figuring out good performance, and how training people just isn't a good economic decision when they can just leave to a place with a bigger budget in a year or two.
I know hundreds of people in these categories. They go work on Wall Street or other industries where those with 10+yrs experience get paid commensurate to their experience.
I guarantee if tech jobs paid market wages for higher experience there would be no shortage.
Also, the market salary in SF/SV will generally need to be higher. The cost of living is outrageous even compared to NYC.
And many do not. I actually came from the trading side and there are a lot of VPs [1] who cap out at lower total comp levels than you would think [2]. There are absolutely tech roles that pay mid 6 figures or more, in NY, SF/SV, and elsewhere. It's not harder to get those roles than it is to become a VP.
Yes, there are traders who made 8 or 9 figure bonuses, but these are outliers akin to successful VC-backed startup founders.
> The cost of living is outrageous even compared to NYC.
I think this is debatable, but it's irrelevant so I won't indulge.
[1] VP is the first role where there's no "up or out". You can stay as a VP and not be promoted without being implicitly or explicitly told to leave.
[2] I know a quant trading VP who is extremely unlikely to ever make more than $300k and they have never made more than that over a career that spans more than a decade. This is fairly typical.
So I think you're right that it's not about new grads, but about proven senior people. That's exactly when the salaries plateau. So the people here saying "It's not a shortage if you're paying too little" are right too. There are new grads getting hired for $130k total comp, or even $200k. Offer me $300k plus remote and I'll probably take it. Offer me $400k and maybe I'll even move. Of course that sounds outrageous, but my point is it shouldn't. Not if you consider the difference in value senior people can provide.
Three suggestions - 1) raise the compensation for seniors 2) offer more interesting projects/products 3) use a different interview process for seniors, they hate algorithm quizzes
Most software companies just churn out database-backed MVC apps. After 5 years of that any good developer would be bored.
If I were an American, what would it take to work in London?
A good internet connection and some perseverance in getting remote jobs. Also strong work habits.
I have many friends back home in Slovenia who stay in Slovenia but work for San Francisco. Sure they don't make 100k, but they don't have to. At 80k they're socking away 40k+ per year. And the SF startup is super stoked because they get good engineers for peanuts.