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Marketing teams are usually data driven rather than user experience driven.

How does one counter the argument that "anecdotal evidence suggests people who sign up with us are 2x more likely to convert, so let's force more sign ups to increase revenue".

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Do these people ever consider that they might have their causation backwards?

Of course, and this does get pointed out to them.

But it's easier for them to extrapolate data and say, hey, we couldn't get emails of xxx thousand users, so we lost xxx amount, vs our argument that they probably lost a number of users who were annoyed by the popup.

Except, you can count conversions, but you can't "measure annoyance"

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