HN's algorithm has a sense of humor: this pairs nicely with the other front-page story about the 2014 prediction that Facebook would be dead by 2017.
Back then they were saying FB couldn't do it and there wasn't enough screen real estate on a phone to make it meaningful. Google had the previous years good but it was about to end. Their ad platform at the time was also a failure and they were bleeding money. Lots of it rhymes with Snap, there are lots of parallels.
As for China, I don't think most people can access FB? Don't you need a VPN?
1. A lot of my friends are leaving facebook 2. A lot of my dev friends no longer build on facebook's platform 3. Most of the young kids I know have moved to Snapchat. 4. Most of the older kids I know hang out on Instagram. 5. All the friends that worked at facebook have left to go work elsewhere.
1) Friend X liked a photo of someone I've never met and likely never will meet
2) A recipe video that I would never make, or some household 'lifehack' I would never use.
3) Meaningless images - 'Happy Friday', 'Share if you hate winter', 'Like if you love Christmas', etc.
Their engagement numbers may still be rising, but it feels like they've favored pushing up that metric at the cost of having actual quality engagements. It's all been hollowed out.
MAU (monthly active users) - 1.79B (up 16% YoY)
DAU (daily active users) - 1.18B (up 17% YoY)
Revenue - 7.01B (up 59% YoY)
Net Income - 1.38B (up 166% YoY)
I'm not sure this rebuttal is relevant since the original claim is that the flight of users is a leading indicator of the platform's demise. Facebook owns Instagram, so maybe it's ad revenues are coming from places other than facebook.com?
I agree with OP in the same way that I believe the story about the shoe shine boy and the stock market. It may not happen tomorrow, but facebook is not cool anymore.
Revenue - 7.01B (up 59% YoY)
Net Income - 1.38B (up 166% YoY)
Additionally Facebook has gladly allowed obviously fake and spammy accounts on the site for ages.
Note also that nobody is claiming Facebook is a ghost town. Clearly a lot of people still use it. But it's not remotely cool any more. Most people I know who still have accounts think of it as a burden.
I think it's going to take a lot to bring down FB, if it's even doable - it has become the dominant platform by far for most of my friends (musicians). Fortunately for Snapchat, it doesn't need to do that - it just needs to become a viable option.