Plus, they didn't miss on production. They missed on deliveries. From a quick read of the article, it looks like most of the miss has been produced and is currently in transit or waiting to be put in transit. That bodes well for their first quarter target.
The 2016 forecast started at 100,000, then was decreased to 80,000-90,000, which was missed by 4.5%. There were fewer Teslas sold in Europe in 2016 than 2015, when only the Model S existed.
There are red flags here and there, if you choose to consider them.
Of course there are red flags -- even Elon says that the stock valuation has a lot of growth expectations baked into it. Even if they hit the bigger number, there would be plenty of red flags: risk of Model 3 production in volume, risk of S/X sales not growing, risk of needing to raise money, risk of Solar City, etc etc.