Hacker News Reader

Comment by abduhl | Hacker News Reader

Meanwhile, Tesla has missed on vehicle deliveries for the third time this year (out of four quarters). The stock is, obviously, up over 4% on this great news.

http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-miss...

View on HN

Perhaps the market is cheering a 50.7% increase in deliveries from 2015 to 2016? I find it hard to believe that the market thinks it's important for Tesla to hit predictions when they're growing so quickly.

Amusingly, the article you linked titled "Time To Sell TSLA Stock?" itself links an article by the same author titled "Buy Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Stock Now Or Regret It Later."

Dig a bit deeper. AMIGOBULLS is the publisher, not author. Original articles are written by two different[0] authors[1].

[0] http://amigobulls.com/articles/tesla-motors-inc-misses-on-de...

[1] http://amigobulls.com/articles/buy-tesla-motors-inc-tsla-sto...

Whatever opinion you already have, you can cite this guy. Modern journalism ftw.

...you get that at two given points in the history of a stock, it might be a must-buy and a must-sell, right?

This isn't correct. These articles were posted 8 days apart from one another with nothing but positive news inbetween. That's not going to shift TSLA from a must-buy to a must-sell...

What OP missed was that the author is actually another website that just reposts all of their content elsewhere. The originals are here[0][1]

[0] http://amigobulls.com/articles/buy-tesla-motors-inc-tsla-sto...

[1] http://amigobulls.com/articles/tesla-motors-inc-misses-on-de...

That's quite the cynical comment. I can only assume from your comment that you think this company doesn't deserve to have good news.

Some of us wants to have a future where electric car is the norm, rather than the exception and Tesla has arguably brought this possibility to our generation by itself.

I, for one, welcome this news and wish them the best.

They missed by like 4.5%. And on other forecasts such as battery integration they are 2 years ahead...

Plus, they didn't miss on production. They missed on deliveries. From a quick read of the article, it looks like most of the miss has been produced and is currently in transit or waiting to be put in transit. That bodes well for their first quarter target.

The 2016 forecast started at 100,000, then was decreased to 80,000-90,000, which was missed by 4.5%. There were fewer Teslas sold in Europe in 2016 than 2015, when only the Model S existed.

There are red flags here and there, if you choose to consider them.

Of course there are red flags -- even Elon says that the stock valuation has a lot of growth expectations baked into it. Even if they hit the bigger number, there would be plenty of red flags: risk of Model 3 production in volume, risk of S/X sales not growing, risk of needing to raise money, risk of Solar City, etc etc.

In economics and trading, you learn that future (expected) price = present price. So expectations are already priced in, whatever those expectations are. Bad news doesn't necessarily lower the stock price, and good news doesn't necessarily raise the stock price. In the end, it's about demand for the stock, trading dynamics, and people buy if they think the future of the company is greater than expectations, no matter how good/bad the current mood is.

Yep, they missed the mark on delivering 80,000 vehicles. By ~2700 vehicles. After dumping a key vendor of auto pilot hardware and retooling in the middle of the quarter.

Stock prices move based on derivatives of derivatives. The stock price increased because investors were expecting them to miss on deliveries by a lot, instead they missed by a little. Even though the miss was bad news, the scale of the miss was good news.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com