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Yes and no. The Scottish independence vote in 2014 was 55%/45% in favour of staying. In Brexit, the Scottish result was 62%/38% in favour of staying in the EU.

I don't think it's an SNP exaggeration to suggest that the majority of the population would favour separation from the UK if a referendum were held today.

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Except all the polling suggests that support for independence is dropping, with the most recent polling showing it dropping below the 45% achieved last time out.

I'm not saying it's a certain thing, but it also shouldn't be dismissed as the SNP trying to brew a storm in a teacup.

I'm skeptical of polling partly because it's shown itself to be utterly unreliable in the last twelve months, but also because polls taken before any active campaigning has started bear little resemblance to those taken during.

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