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Comment by edblarney | Hacker News Reader

People should be weary that this is not 'Scotland threatening to leave' necessarily, it's the SNP ginning up their audience. Obviously, there is concern, but anything existential the SNP will use.

I lived in Canada throughout the 20 years or so of near-Quebec separation, it's similar in rhetoric.

Absolutely every bit of legislation, every policy, every cause - is run through the separatist opportunistic filters.

Because they don't really have a majority, they're pressed to do anything they can to 'keep the base' and to find that bit of anger that gets them over the top.

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Bearing in mind that I know next to nothing about Québécois separatism (including whether that's even the right thing to call it), I am genuinely curious whether this is a good analogy. There is no "American Union" that Canada threatened to leave while Quebec wanted to remain a part of. Surely that's a hugely significant difference?

> There is no "American Union" that Canada threatened to leave while Quebec wanted to remain a part of. Surely that's a hugely significant difference?

What about NAFTA?

Canada never threatened to leave NAFTA.

It's a good analogy for the point edblarney is trying to make, namely that separatist politicians will grab any issue to give them a chance to make political hay, even if the issue doesn't rationally have any connection to separatism.

the SNP know that if the UK leaves the EU single market, then any future indyref discussion would centre around the possibility of the establishment of a hard border between Scotland and England, and even the possibility of Scots needing work permits to work in England

the vast majority of Scots value the ability to live and work in the UK more than the ability to live and work in the EU

this was not on the agenda in 2014, as both the UK and an independent Scotland would have both been in the EU, with freedom of goods, services and movement

given the SNP's inability to respond to the currency question in 2014, the odds of them handling this much more complicated issue seem far more remote

the UK leaving the single market is sturgeon's worst nightmare

Yes and no. The Scottish independence vote in 2014 was 55%/45% in favour of staying. In Brexit, the Scottish result was 62%/38% in favour of staying in the EU.

I don't think it's an SNP exaggeration to suggest that the majority of the population would favour separation from the UK if a referendum were held today.

Except all the polling suggests that support for independence is dropping, with the most recent polling showing it dropping below the 45% achieved last time out.

I'm not saying it's a certain thing, but it also shouldn't be dismissed as the SNP trying to brew a storm in a teacup.

I'm skeptical of polling partly because it's shown itself to be utterly unreliable in the last twelve months, but also because polls taken before any active campaigning has started bear little resemblance to those taken during.

But Scotland voted overwhelmingly against Brexit. They wanted to stay in the EU.

and fewer Scots voted to remain in the EU than voted to remain in the UK in 2014, by about a quarter

what's your point?

That MANY more Scots voted to leave the UK than voted to leave the EU.

(Stupid stats manipulation cuts both ways, ya know?)

Voting to leave the UK would in effect mean also voting to leave the EU because the UK could've and rightfully so declared that Scotland needs to apply independently for membership, and if the UK really wanted to act like a twat they could also block Scotland's membership indefinitely.

Not anymore.

"But Scotland voted overwhelmingly against Brexit. They wanted to stay in the EU."

I understand the naunces. I'm not making a point for or against.

I'm pointing out the 'political optics' of it.

Separatist parties are a strange beast. 100% of legislation has to be viewed under the eyes of separatism. All national legislation will be framed as 'oppressive' etc.. They poke, poke and poke until they find something that pisses people off. Then they run with it.

It's almost funny because often, they look laughably hypocritical ... their strategy has to be aggressive, but most of the time they look ridiculous to all but the hardcore.

In Canada, we had the 'block Quebecois' at the national level who are completely antagonist at the federal level. They yelled and screamed 'Quebec Quebec Quebec' at every single piece of legislation. Sometimes, there would be a kernel of truth, sometimes not.

What happens is that people get tired of it.

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