They are all complicate. I've tried the older Webpack 2.x and got a number of errors. Didn't have time to resolve all of them. Went with the simpler rollup, and be done with it.
For my workflow, I just need ES6 transpile, module bundling, minifying, and auto build with watch for multiple pages. Code split sounds good on paper but I do my grouping of files explicitly anyway. HMR sounds nice but I haven't got hot reload working yet. Manual refresh the page isn't too bad.
I've spent way too much time on configuration and getting the tool chain to work, and less time on developing real feature. Getting really sick of it.