From informal conversations I've had in the past with both people from Valve and PSVR it seems like PSVR and Vive numbers are closer to projections. I think Vive stole a lot of potential high end buyers from Oculus, not launching with Touch was a mistake for them. I also believe this market is a lot more price sensitive than Oculus thought it would be, The Rift has currently sold 200K units more than the DK2 with a much bigger marketing push, more high quality content and a better product, but 2x (or 3x if you include Touch) price point. I wonder if they should have made a "Super DK2". Lower quality headset hardware but Rift quality tracking and touch support at a lower price.
Anecdotally, many people believe VR is a niche market that is comparable to 3D TVs and doesn't add much, but I've also met people that would buy a highend VR headset (quality matters also) if the price was right and the setup was easy. A "cheap" ($250-$400) easy to use all-in-one unit with inside out tracking, tracked controllers and a good library of games, software and content could be the tipping point for the VR market.