They were off by a factor of 10 with the likelihood of being struck and killed by lightning, according to the nws website.

To clarify: the likelihood of being merely struck by lightning is ~ 1/1,000,000 per year. The likelihood of being struck and killed is 1/10,000,000 , or about 1/2^23.25

Given this, you would only have to be struck and killed by lightning 6.8 years in a row to equal a sha1 hash collision probability.