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Comment by IgorPartola | Hacker News Reader

My prediction is that we will be in the same situation with iPhone vs Andriod that we are now with Mac vs Windows in 5-7 years. Andriod will be the cheaper but less polished product sold to the masses, while the iPhone will be a more upscale, more expensive product for the people with discriminating taste. Right now there is a lot of innovation going on in the mobile market, but the reality is that soon some features will become standard or even (gasp!) interoperable. At that point rapid "breadth-first" innovation will stop and we'll be looking at a competition of who has the nicer screen or longer battery life or faster processor, etc., and not at all at how apps are distributed, or multitasking is done.

P.S.: In 100 years works like "cell phone" and "app" will be SAT words : ).

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The gap in usability between Android devices and the iPhone is pretty small. With Sense from HTC, it's even smaller. I've been lucky enough to get to test-drive the HTC Incredible and it's most certainly on par with anything the iPhone currently offers. Google is pushing Android in the right direction at a really fast clip.

I absolutely think Android will dominate in terms of market-share in the next two years (unless Apple starts loosening control over the iPhone). I think that issues like how applications are distributed and those particulars over multi-tasking (Android still has an entire class of Apps that won't run on iPhone OS 4.0) are going to continue to play a big role in the competitive environment for years to come. I just don't see Apple coming off of it's hard line position on these things.

In the end I think Android wins because it simply opens the door for more innovation from a much larger group of smart people. It enables broader categories of application development. At the same time the shotgun strategy phone development is a proven one. Just look at Series 60 or even windows PC's for a roadmap.

I think Apple will have to loosen its grip the same way it had to do it for their desktop/laptop offerings. They used to offer really cools stuff but then the cost of not having them be able to talk to the beige boxes became too high.

Also you are comparing HTC Incredible to 3G/3GS. I guess we'll see if the 4G iPhone is actually another step above everybody else.

> Also you are comparing HTC Incredible to 3G/3GS. I guess we'll see if the 4G iPhone is actually another step above everybody else.

Well if you try and review the iPhone 4G you get arrested.

> Well if you try and review the iPhone 4G you get arrested.

Only if you buy a stolen unit to review :-)

I agree, but only if Apple allows unsigned apps on the iPhone. Then its a matter of taste & money. Money that I would be willing to spend if I owned the phone after purchasing it, like I own my MacBook Pro.

My hope is that Android is so successful that Apple has to allow unsigned App. Until then I am happy developing apps for Android.

I think it will have to. On the other hand, I try to remind myself that 95% of iPhone/SmartPhone users out there don't care about Apple's embargo on certain apps. The most visible one was Google Voice, and that's still in a very closed beta. Things will dramatically change when the Andriod phones have something the iPhone doesn't that matters to those 95%.

I think that at the very least they're going to have to provide some method for Enterprises to load custom or semi-custom enterprise specific apps without going through the app store.

They have that. See here: http://developer.apple.com/programs/iphone/enterprise/

Shoot. How'd I miss that? Anyway thanks for pointing that out!

You're effectively saying, I hope that Apple becomes such a minority platform that they're forced to open up. But why would you want to develop for a minority platform, even if the stop actively chasing people away? It's a catch-22.

This stance benefits Apple now, when they have the early mover advantage, and delays the advance of Android but unless they're very quick to change strategies and smooth things over with developers then it's only going to accelerate things when (and it seems like a when, not if) they become a minority platform.

  But why would you want to develop for a minority platform

You may want to do that if majority of paying customers are on that minority platform.

Allowing only signed apps has one huge advantage: no malware.

I do feel that Apple should weaken its requirements and only disallow bad apps.

I understand what you're saying, but what the iPhone really excludes is unapproved malware.

I understand what you're saying, but what the iPhone really excludes is unapproved malware.

Which has always seemed like an elephant in the room for Apple, legally speaking. By aggressively vetting applications, aren't they warranting to their end users that the applications are free from harmful or illegal side effects? What stops me from writing an app that only turns into malware after a certain date, for instance?

I think that's a pretty unproven assertion. There's no evidence that Apple's review process is anywhere near comprehensive enough to detect zero day malware.

Actually Android apps are required to be signed too. It's just the restriction on who is allowed to sign it that is looser.

> Andriod will be the cheaper but less polished product sold to the masses, while the iPhone will be a more upscale, more expensive product for the people with discriminating taste

Okay a lot of people have given you a pass for this (as Hacker's News, almost entirely as a reflection PG's spoken beliefs, is very Apple-fawning), but this is silly. You aren't special for buying a Mac, nor are your tastes better.

Everyone's anecdotes are different, but personally I equate owning an Apple PC with being very susceptible to marketing. The iPhone was a clear winner until maybe 6 months ago, however since then anyone choosing an iphone again is mostly a "Consumer" and not a discerning purchaser.

My point is that that's the higher ground that Apple will be forced to take. Good design is not something you achieve and then have in your back pocket, so the fact that Andriod UI is "getting there" doesn't mean much in terms of comparisons of future products. OTOH, Apple has historically been very good at creating UI/UX that is a head above the rest. They have also been very successful at selling their products for a price points way above what is absolutely minimally profitable. I think Andriod will force them right to this basic model when it comes to smartphones.

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