> You might say that solid middle-class countries would help to stabilize the governments, but the Syrian and Libyan civil wars really ought to be clear signs of the fallacy of that belief.

Neither the Libyan nor Syrian civil war was caused by a failure of the middle class or institutions. In both cases the wars were fomented by external state actors who sought geopolitical advantages at the expense of these nations. In any case your sample size of 2 is insufficient to prove anything

If a war broke out in Tehran no prizes for guessing which nation would start it.