The difficulty here is parsing out

* people's sincere preferences

* people's reported preferences in surveys

* people's strategic voting in a hypothetical scenario

* and people's strategic voting in the real world.

I'd argue that an ideal system allows those four to collapse into one, but I'm not holding my breath.

In honesty though, I don't know. I'd assume this type of failure would occur whenever the largest demographic's second choice isn't the first choice of the second largest demographic (read: quite often), but that's armchair guessing.