> If the US withdraws from the Paris accord, other countries like China will follow, as they will not want to be the ones that try to reduce emissions at the price of being less competitive (in the short run) when one of the largest economies in the world won't do it as well.

I predict the opposite. China knows that climate change is real, and will seek to take a leadership position in fighting it as means of building long-term international prestige.

The U.S. built its reputation today by defending freedom during WWII and then by handing nations back to their citizens after it won.

Fascism, authoritarianism, communism--those were the greatest threats to human society in the 20th century, and the U.S. led the fight that beat them. But the generation who experienced all that personally will soon be dead.

What is the greatest threat to society now? In the long term, it has to be climate change. It's like fuel for every other social unrest you can think of.

50 years from now, international reputation might hinge on who did the most to limit the effects of climate change. If China sticks to it, and the U.S. fails, the U.S. could find itself pretty damn unpopular.