This is why I don't get usually get involved in political discussions online. Someone who's committed to a position can always bring up new questions instead of responding to the original ones. (In this case I wasn't even taking a position, just pointing out where I found the logical reasoning unconvincing.) While both the new points you raise are open to debate, they shift the topic away from the two I was talking about. If I respond further we could be here forever.

That's the question then--is it the case that any rational interpretation of the polls gave an actual forecast of least 70%, and the NYT lied? The parent seemed to be saying that election's outcome alone proved that the 20% number was not only wrong, but dishonest on top of it. You need some more ingredients to prove either of those things, though.

Please illuminate me. I may be wrong, but I certainly wasn't being dishonest. The fact that you leaped straight to that conclusion doesn't help convince me that you have a particularly well-grounded belief in the NYT's dishonesty, either.