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Comment by estefan | Hacker News Reader

"Fun" in the "emboldens Russian aggression safe in the knowledge the US won't back up NATO" sense? I think this is a complete disaster for world peace. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised to see Europe involved in a major war with Russia in the next 2 years. If that happens China will seize the moment too.

Also having someone who thinks climate change is a lie in the White House will affect everyone. He should ask the inhabitants of Delhi whether they think climate change is a lie [1].

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/world/asia/india-delhi-smo...

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Ah yes, the return of the Russian boogeyman.

Agreements like NATO do not promote peace. It's easy to be too aggressive when you have big friends who you can drag into your fights.

As crappy as trump is IMO there is a little more hope for peace. Hillary is such a hawk conflict was all but guaranteed under her administration

Russian military spending has increased in real terms for the last few years and they've ordered 2000 high-spec new tanks. What do you think they need them for?

...and it's still 9 times less then US' military budget alone.

Well that's the point isn't it. If the US don't honour their NATO obligations, there's nothing to stop a Russian land grab.

You lost me with that link, it's a total non-sequitor, unless you want to explain what you meant by it.

There have to be a lot of things going bad for a major war to happen. War is probably to start out in Turkey, trying to get back a chunk of the middle east back. Russia is always ready to oppose the status quo and get back influence in Eastern Europe. They do not stand a chance against the US.

Even if China sees this as an opportunity to jump to (that's a VERY big if), the US can easily handle all three of them. The problem is going to be whether or not the US can count on its allies in Asia. Not because it needs the military support, they don't, but because you cannot be alone vs. the world. The population will simply not support you.

As it is stands now, the US can count on its allies in Asia. No matter how much they dislike the US, they fear and hate China much, much more thanks to thousands of years of history.

The status quo might change but not violently, perhaps giving influence ground in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Also losing ground in future trade/economy deals which will have a real impact on US population if it were to happen.

> Even if China sees this as an opportunity to jump to (that's a VERY big if), the US can easily handle all three of them.

They can, but will they? Trump has made it clear that he's not so eager to fulfill his NATO obligations when it comes to Russia. If Putin decides to move on Estonia, it's possible that the EU will have to defend Estonia without US help.

I'm less concerned about China; their expansion in the South China Sea is somewhat worrying, but their mostly interested in peace, economy and improving the lives of the common Chinese. In fact, China may be the only major power that I'm somewhat hopeful about. They may not be democratic, but they're giving increasing attention to fighting corruption and pollution, and their increased wealth has made the Chinese people a lot more informed and assertive.

But Putin worries me, and Trump's election could end up removing a major balancing factor to Russian aggression.

Why challenge the US? It's a gamble. Is Trump really serious about not backing NATO or was it just talk? Will he be pressured into fulfilling the obligation by the EU and his staff? That's a lot of unknowns and if Putin falls on the wrong side of them, that will be the undoing of him and probably Russia as it is today. It's all fun and games while it's just talk and signing currency swaps. Not so fun if you poked the bear one too many times.

Much better to try and negotiate backroom deals about withdrawing influence in Eastern Europe.

So this just in:

"Chinese state media has warned the U.S. president-elect against isolationism and interventionism, calling instead for the United States to actively work with China to maintain the international status quo."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-china-media-i...?

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