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AGI sounds like fuzzy logic. We know how far that got. It will make some companies money though, it's snake oil. Computers even thousands of years from now will never be able to do what a programmer with 1 year of experience can do today, it's the advantage of being human.

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At the end of 2014, nobody disagreed with this comic: http://xkcd.com/1425/

Halfway through 2016, "a programmer with 1 year of experience" using nothing by Python, numpy and a couple of spare weeks could roll their own convolutional neural net to identify images with high-90-percent accuracy.

I dunno about you but that sounds like a significant advance to me.

Would you play Russian Roulette with those odds? I wonder if an artificial intelligence would.

Computers have less than a century of history so far and you're already able to predict the next thousands of years? Sounds like a religious belief to me.

> Computers have less than a century of history so far

That's actually the point.

I'm sorry, I don't see it. Can you explain how that short history somehow makes your sweeping claims about the future more credible?

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