A popular theory is that Polynesian navigators would hone in on these cloud patterns in the sky, treating them as the big arrows in the sky pointing to land that they essentially are.
Only islands with high peaks, which means most likely, volcanic islands. Which happens to be true for large islands in the pacific. As opposed to purely coral islands which rise just above the sea level.
However, Polynesian navigation was quite sophisticated. They followed the stars at night; they could read the ocean to tell where land was; they could follow sea birds to roosting places.
That enlarges your target some, but still... over those kinds of distances, to hit a speck of land like Easter Island seems pretty amazing.
I've heard stories of Islanders that could detect different types of fish from surface wave patterns.
More than anything, I just wonder how they managed to cross thousands of miles of open water and hit relatively tiny targets.