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Even if that were the case I would think learning powerful tools over the span of a few weeks would be worth the effort if you had the reliability that these tools would exist for years to come.

It seems like the rapid change and throw-away-ability of the tool ecosystem reflects the final product as well -- and maybe that's the large difference which is emergent from web technology? What is the average lifespan of a web application?

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I don't think the past few years will be representative of web development in the future. The community has had a lot of churn because basic questions (How do I ensure my code has what it needs to run? How do I include dependencies? How do I efficiently deliver my code?) weren't answered, but now those questions have robust, widely used solutions, we don't have everyone figuring that out for themselves (and writing throwaway tools).

I think most of the current crop of tools that are in vogue will stick around for a while. There have been a few challengers to Webpack offering feature improvements (Rollup, Broccoli), but the ideas they introduced were added to Webpack, rather than replacing it.

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