Look, the Azimuth people have forgotten more about reliable exploit development than I have ever known, but, no, as stated, this is clearly not true. Not long ago, pretty much all local privesc bugs were practically 100% reliable.
What I think they mean to say is that this is unusually reliable for a kernel race.
I still think, though, that the right mental model to have regarding Linux privesc bugs is:
1. If there's a local privesc bug with a published exploit, assume it's 100% reliable.
2. In almost all cases, whether or not there's a known local privesc bug, assume that code execution on your Linux systems equates to privesc; this is doubly true of machines in your prod deployment environment.