3.6GB - http://wlstorage.net/torrent/wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256.t...
49GB - http://wlstorage.net/torrent/wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256.t...
349GB - http://wlstorage.net/torrent/wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256.t...
94GB - https://file.wikileaks.org/torrent/2016-06-03_insurance.aes2...
I don't know why they would put out a few hundred gigabytes of fake files. The contents might not be as interesting as people hope, though.
Looks like you can check it now. The keys went public:
pre-commitment 3: UK FCO f33a6de5c627e3270ed3e02f62cd0c857467a780cf6123d2172d80d02a072f74
pre-commitment 2: Ecuador eae5c9b064ed649ba468f0800abf8b56ae5cfe355b93b1ce90a1b92a48a9ab72
pre-commitment 1: John Kerry 4bb96075acadc3d80b5ac872874c3037a386f4f595fe99e687439aabd0219809
Seems to me as likely as not that there is nothing really there.
Ciphertext indistiguishability[1] is a basic requirement for any encryption scheme. All modern ciphers are designed to make that hard.
The same reason a stick-up man might put their hand in their pocket to mimic the shape of a gun. If you have no weapon, it's still often useful to make people think you have one.
To trick people like you? `dd if=/dev/urandom` is much easier than finding a comparable quantity of actual info.
I don't know enough to have much opinion on the odds that's the case, vs them being real, though.
That said he can't really play that card too often.