Comment by Declanomous | Hacker News Reader

Comment by Declanomous | Hacker News Reader

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Why would Amazon care if they damaged their reputation with Fedex and UPS? They can just do what UPS and Fedex do when it is too expensive to deliver a package somewhere -- turn it over to the USPS. Amazon is already using USPS to deliver packages on Sundays, which is win-win-win. Amazon wins, USPS wins, and the consumers win. Amazon's home delivery seems to work well where it's been rolled out, and I don't see competitive barriers to rolling it out elsewhere.

I think the article fails to cover a lot of areas where Amazon will have a competitive advantage over UPS and Fedex. First of all, Amazon will be vertically integrated. They can control the packaging. They can control which warehouses are used to store items. This could lead to better packing efficiency in delivery vehicles, and could make automated loading of vehicles easier. If you have a particular route that is usually 110% full or 40% full, you could either move more items to that warehouse or take some away. Plus, Amazon can incentivize cheaper shipping options dynamically. Will the marginal cost of this order be incredibly high because you'll need a second truck for a particular route? Discount one day shipping, or offer two day shipping to their work instead.

On top of all that, Amazon doesn't have unionized employees. That's a huge advantage when you are trying to reduce costs. Not only are their employees wages probably less, but they also don't have contracts that reduce planning ability, like fixed routes, etc.

(The above is my comment on this post yesterday, though the post failed to get traction. I think it's probably still relevant 24 hours later)

On top of all that, Amazon doesn't have unionized employees. That's a huge advantage when you are trying to reduce costs. Not only are their employees wages probably less, but they also don't have contracts that reduce planning ability, like fixed routes, etc.

There's no realistic way to reduce costs being non-union shop in what is traditionally a unionized business. Either the shop will organize on its own or you run the shop to union standards in an effort to stave off organization.

I think that is probably true for skilled workers, but the people delivering packages for Amazon in Chicago appear to be far from skilled. It's not that hard to find someone with a driver's license and replace them. Assuming Amazon has to offer similar benefits to Union shops, they will still save money. For instance, if Amazon offers its delivery drivers retirement benefits, you can rest assured there is no way in hell they offer a pension. On top of that, I can guarantee that Amazon won't hamstring its logistical flexibility by guaranteeing fixed routes.

This is even assuming that Amazon directly employs their delivery drivers. I know Google delivery uses contract drivers in Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if Amazon has a similar set up in some places. It's pretty hard to organize when you are the driver.

Regardless, Amazon will fight tooth-and-nail to prevent unions from forming. They've successfully done so at their warehouses, and I don't see why deliveries would be any different. See this article by the NYT

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/17/technology/amazon-proves-i...

I think you have that backwards. Unions work best for unskilled work. They're not really necessary in most skilled jobs where worker demand is high and wages are competitive.

There are many skilled professions which are highly unionized; e.g., the various TV and film production unions. Which professions are and aren't unionized is, to a large extent, just a quirk of historical circumstance.

Unions are a collective bargaining mechanism.

> unskilled

http://www.alpa.org/about-alpa/what-we-do

> necessary

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/01/15/415m-settlement-...

Wal-Mart? Hardly union standards, and never been able to successfully organize.

Is Walmarts business "traditionally unionized"? You might have missed that crucial prior in GPs statement.

Additionally, Walmart actively discourages unionization via propaganda during training and outright threats. If Reddit is to be believed, closing an entire outlet is not too big a price to stave off the specter of unionization.

Between Walmart and Amazon, I'd rather have Amazon win, but at some point we're going to optimize away all the on the ground jobs.

Less of a deal for cities, but some of the small towns I drive through for work don't seem to have any other employment than trades/Walmart/service/trucking/maybe "the local plant".

What kind of world are we creating for small towns when 2.5 of those disappear in the next few decades?

Maybe there's not much of a world for small towns? Perhaps the only people who will live outside of big cities at some point will be remote workers looking to get away from so many people.

The Caves of Steel series sees all of terrestrial humanity living in huge hives, for example, with only robots outside of those, doing all the farming and mining.

Here in northern Sweden we are starting to see people coming back to the small towns. There is even a large amount of germans and other nationalities coming here and setting up their new life. Common jobs involve tourism aimed towards their old home-country. They pull in more people that sees the benefits of living less crowded (but still low cost 100 Mbps unlimited broadband).

The price for a house with land and forest can be as little as 1/100-th the price of a house in Germany so not uncommon that they buy more than one, restorate it and invite the kids/grandkids too :-)

The postal service works pretty well, we have had a few incidents while living in a bigger city where packages was marked for delivery failed, not home while being home the whole day. But those got sorted out after a phonecall and haven't had them since. Apparently all the delivery companies hires the same local people to do the actual deliveries so you don't get around the problem by switching company.

>> The price for a house with land and forest can be as little as 1/100-th the price of a house in Germany

Can you please share prices ?

One friend bought a few houses for 500 euro each

Excellent share. Good to know.

I so hope not. I live on the edge of a very small town. We have fiber! We also have clean air, clean water, no crime, a helping community, strong social connections and no congested traffic. I work online. I fish in the evenings or do other outdoor activities. In 30 minutes I can be at a university. I hail from Los Angeles where all of my younger well-paid siblings have had health issues or dealt with crime etc. Small towns have benefits that have vanished in metro markets. I am calmer and enjoy life more here ..and am healthier.

Oh I totally sympathize, I'm thinking of moving to a smaller town. But as a thought experiment, it doesn't seem inconceivable that economic activity will continue to concentrate into the big cities, leaving mostly tourism and a smattering of remote work for the smaller towns.

Some Wal-Mart butchers had a successful unionization vote. In response, Wal-Mart closed down all their butcher shops.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wal-mart-to-shut-down-meat-...

> Is Walmarts business "traditionally unionized"?

If you think of WalMart as the replacement for Sears, then Sears was at least partially union... or something.

Similar businesses like Kroger, Meijer, Safeway, Albertsons have union employees.

To my knowledge, UPS is unionized but Fedex is not.

I think you are correct. I've attributed the fact that UPS and USPS employees will stand around and chat, and Fedex employees run in like their tail is on fire and run out to this point. I know that Fedex is mostly an express service, and UPS and USPS aren't, but I think the union/non-union thing contributes.

Not that the speed in any way sours my opinion of unions. I'd burn out working under Fedex-like conditions.

>I know that Fedex is mostly an express service

This was true in the past, but FedEx and UPS are practically identical in their service offerings for the last 15 years.

FedEx Ground is typically handled by independent contractors (and may actually be a separate company). FedEx Express drivers are FedEx employees.

When I was in an apartment I hated it when USPS got my package. When I wasn't home, they'd take it back to the post office which meant I had to then drive to the post office, at a time when they were open (which conflicted with my working hours). UPS or FedEx would leave it at the office.

Now that I'm in a house, I much prefer USPS if only because my post man comes by at 9am and UPS/FedEx don't come by until 2-3pm.

I've had the exact opposite experience in every apartment I've lived in (like....10 now?). And USPS typically has a postal key to the entryway so they can leave packages inside. The best case scenario with FedEx has always been that they may ring a bunch of buzzers randomly before leaving the package on the doorstep and driving off.

USPS is good for last-mile delivery, especially outside cities, because they are legally mandated to serve every address.

But the USPS also contracts with UPS and Fedex for backhaul capacity. It's not unusual for a UPS truck to pull up to a Post Office and drop off a bunch of mail, which is then delivered to the address by the postal carrier.

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